The Effect of Israel–Hamas War on the Supply Chain

Navigating Unpredictable Waters: Increased Threats to Commercial Shipping

The maritime war risk ratings for the southern Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait have been escalated from medium to high. This change is in response to the growing unpredictability of commercial vessel targeting by the Houthi rebel movement in Yemen, amidst the ongoing conflict in the region.

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Despite claims by the Houthis of targeting only vessels linked to Israel, the criteria for such links have become increasingly ambiguous. This vagueness has led to heightened uncertainty regarding potential targets, posing risks to a broader range of vessels.

In the wake of these developments, major container lines and other operators are considering avoiding these waters entirely, a decision that is likely to be mirrored by more companies in the near future. Vessels that continue to navigate through the Red Sea are now subject to higher war risk insurance premiums.

The alternative route via South Africa not only increases fuel and labor costs but also leads to significant disruptions, including the need for renegotiating charter parties. This shift in shipping routes is a direct consequence of the escalated targeting patterns, which have expanded beyond vessels with clear Israeli affiliations to include those with no or minimal links.

Victoria Mitchell, a maritime security analyst, highlights the growing unpredictability in the region. The strategic importance of the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, coupled with the unclear impact of international naval forces and the evolving Israel-Hamas conflict, necessitates this heightened risk rating.

The pattern of targeting has evolved, with attacks now including vessels without direct Israeli commercial connections. International naval forces continue to play a crucial role in intercepting threats, yet the unpredictability of attacks remains a significant concern.

For operators, the escalating situation has led to a temporary halt in Red Sea transits, with many awaiting further clarity on protection measures or potential conflict de-escalation. The alternative route around the Cape of Good Hope presents its own set of challenges, including delays, increased operational costs, and administrative complexities.

Vessels perceived as high-risk, particularly those with Israeli ownership, are facing substantial challenges in securing insurance for Red Sea transits, with some insurers outright refusing coverage or demanding exorbitant premiums. The unpredictable nature of the situation may also lead to increased insurance costs for other operators continuing to use the Red Sea route.

Understanding the Rising Tensions and Their Impact on Shipping

The southern Red Sea, a crucial segment of one of the world’s busiest shipping channels, is gaining attention due to increasing maritime risks. This area, south of the Suez Canal, is a vital link between Europe, Asia, and East Africa. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a narrow passage between Djibouti and Yemen, is particularly significant. Approximately 12% of global trade, including 30% of container traffic, passes through here. Any disruption in this region can have far-reaching effects on global trade, influencing petrol prices, electronics availability, and more.

The Houthis, a Yemeni rebel group controlling parts of Yemen including the Red Sea coast, have recently escalated attacks on commercial shipping. Initially targeting vessels linked to Israel, their attacks have broadened, creating uncertainty for all maritime traffic in the region. The US and other Western nations have responded by intercepting Houthi attacks and forming Operation Prosperity Guardian (OPG), a coalition to protect vessels in the area. However, the situation remains tense, with potential for further escalation.

Shipping companies are increasingly avoiding the Red Sea, with major players like Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd suspending operations. Alternative routes, such as around the Cape of Good Hope, add significant time to voyages. The disruption has led to a spike in insurance premiums for ships passing through high-risk areas.

The impact on consumers is already being felt, with rising oil and gas prices as companies like BP halt shipments through the Red Sea. The dilemma for shipping companies is stark: face the heightened risks and costs of Red Sea transit or opt for longer, alternative routes. Both choices come with the potential for increased costs and delays, affecting global supply chains.

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